Commodity Price and Macro-Economic Consensus Market Forecasts

Markets and Product Lines

Commodity price and macro-economic assumptions are frequently required as input to our technical authoring and reviewing mandates which include:

  • technical studies requiring input for cut-off grade determination and optimisation analysis for Mineral Resource and Ore Reserve reporting;
  • benchmarking for comparative cost of production analysis;
  • Financial Models for comparative assessments of economic performance; and
  • Mineral Asset Valuations for reporting in regulatory documentation prepared for the equity capital markets.

Approach

To facilitate the above, SRK has established a historical database with daily and monthly granularity covering the majority of international benchmark indicators including: commodity prices for bulk commodities, base metals, precious metals, gemstones, energy products and industrial minerals; and macro-economic parameters for country specific consumer price indices and exchange rates. In addition, SRK collates on a quarterly basis various financial analysts’ quarterly, annual and long-term commodity price assumptions. These are subsequently collated in real terms to establish a median for each reporting period defined as the Consensus Market Forecasts (“CMF”). Specifically the CMF comprises annual forecasts leading to the long-term price (“LTP”) assumptions as appropriate for Ore Reserve declarations.

Our approach in this regard is to provide a simplified independent benchmark which enables objective comparisons with that associated with the specific mandate at hand. This does not seek to replace the detailed supply-demand-price analysis as normally completed by recognised market specialists and accordingly where named reliance is required (e.g. public domain documentation) SRK recommends that these market specialists be separately appointed. Our historical databases also facilitate authoring of country profile reports and comparative country production contributions to global production and ‘reserve’ status.

Experience

SRK’s experience in this area is exemplified by the numerous mandates requiring such input for public domain consumption, specifically in respect of technical reports filed in support of equity capital markets transactions. Access to our wider natural resource sector participants also enables us to compare and contrast the current market trends in key LTP assumptions as typified by those assumed to support Ore Reserve declarations.

Furthermore we have also been engaged in specific mandates with the majority of the commodity market specialists specifically in respect of assessments requiring cost curve benchmarking. Our collective appreciation of the natural resource sector coupled with appropriate specialist input, assures that forecasts are benchmarked at the outset thus ensuring early identification of any unexplained significant variance from consensus.

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